In the upcoming Round 4 clash of the NRL, the South Sydney Rabbitohs are set to face off against the Penrith Panthers in what promises to be an intriguing match-up. The Rabbitohs, a team that has exceeded expectations, will be taking on the Panthers, who are coming off two consecutive losses and will be missing their star halfback, Nathan Cleary.
Penrith, without Cleary due to a head injury sustained in their previous game, will also be without key player Dylan Edwards. This absence poses a significant challenge for the Panthers, who are tasked with covering an 11.5-point start on the road against the Rabbitohs. Despite Penrith’s recent dominance over Souths, where they have covered in six of their last seven encounters, the absence of Cleary and Edwards raises doubts about their ability to meet this spread.
Historical data shows that home underdogs of four or more points in the early rounds of the NRL season have covered the spread 66% of the time. Additionally, South Sydney has a strong track record as an underdog at Accor Stadium, further enhancing their prospects in this match. Notably, the Rabbitohs have covered the spread in all three of their games this season and will benefit from the return of Alex Johnston from a lengthy injury layoff.
In terms of betting opportunities, a value pick could be Trent Toelau to score a try for the Panthers. Toelau, who will be starting at halfback in Cleary’s absence, has shown promise in lower-tier competitions and presents good odds to find the try line in this game.
Overall, the Rabbitohs appear to have the edge in this contest, especially given the Panthers’ key absences. With South Sydney performing well and Penrith facing challenges, the Rabbitohs could be a strong bet to cover the spread and secure a favorable result in Round 4. Bettors looking to capitalize on this match should consider the form and dynamics of both teams before placing their wagers.
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